Problematic dropout study
Here’s a startling statistic: Only 1 percent of high schools in California - just 25 - account for 20 percent of California’s dropouts. Most of those schools are charter schools and alternative schools.
That’s the headline of the latest of a series of studies by the California Dropout Research Project, overseen by University of California, Santa Barbara professor Russell Rumberger. It was released on Wednesday.
So what does it tell you? Not much, because the study uses odd methodology based on questionable data to produce strange results. The No. 1 school for dropouts, John Muir Charter, has an annual dropout rate of 149 percent.
California has a huge dropout problem - no secret there. In some urban high schools, it’s thought that up to half an entering ninth grade class will have quit school by graduation day. But there won’t be accurate numbers until the state puts in place a statewide data system tracking individual students with unique identifier numbers.
“Which California School Districts Have the Most Dropouts?” lists an annual dropout rate for all 2,462 high schools in California in 2005-’06. It does this by calculating the number of dropouts reported over the course of a year divided by the enrollment at the school on one day in October, when all schools report their attendance to the state. That problematic formula underestimates dropouts at comprehensive high schools and overdramatizes the impact of non-traditional schools that focus on struggling students.
Los Angeles Unified has an annual district dropout rate of 5 percent. Projected over four years, it’s 20 percent - probably way off the mark. SIA Tech, a charter school in San Diego, with enrollment of 911 students and 1,505 dropouts over the year, had an annual rate of 165 percent.
There’s little value in comparing John Muir Charter with a traditional high school. John Muir, with 43 sites around the state, has contracts to provide classes for California Conservation Corps, Job Corps and YouthBuild sites. (YouthBuild is a national community development program for low-income young adults.) The average John Muir student, according director Buzz Breedlove, has already dropped out of two high schools before enrolling. About 40 percent arrive reading at the seventh grade level, with few high school credits. Participants are between 18 to 25 years old. Many are students who are struggling with life, not just academics.
There is a big churn through Conservation Corps programs. Some participants don’t like uniforms or strenuous physical work and quit within weeks; others get kicked out. With few exceptions, when they leave the corps, they no longer take classes at John Muir.
So it’s a complicated picture. About 3,000 students enroll over the course of a year at John Muir. About 10 percent, 297 students, graduated with a high school diploma in 2006. Does that low rate constitute an ineffective school or is it an indictment of the K-12 school system that produced John Muir’s students? John Muir is pursuing accreditation from the Western Assn. of Schools and Colleges, so there will soon be an objective, thorough evaluation of its programs.
Rumberger’s study does highlight the churn in alternative high schools and charter schools serving at-risk students. Chartering agencies, whether county offices of education or local districts, should be doing much more oversight over these programs — and shutting down those that are truly ineffective or wasteful.
One chain of independent charters, Options for Youth and Opportunities for Learning, had six sites out of the top 25 in terms of numbers of dropouts. Options for Youth runs storefront schools combined with independent study - a questionable model for students lacking basic academic skills. Two years ago, the state charged operators John and Joan Hall with overcharging the state $57 million.
“Which California School Districts Have the Most Dropouts?” is an interesting snapshot. But read with caution.
Californians can participate in an online dialogue about education reform in California conducted by San Diego-based research firm, Viewpoint Learning, and sponsored by the Hewlett Foundation. The discussion will revolve around how Californians want their education system to change and to provide suggestions for practical solutions to make the changes. The results of the discussion will be shared with state officials and education advocates. You can register here: http://CA-Schools-Dialogue.org. At the site, you can scroll to the bottom where you’ll click to register for the dialogue. The discussion begins on February 25 and will continue for two weeks. Participants need to register by noon on February 25th to participate.
To get more information about Viewpoint Learning and the work they’ve done, check them out at: http://www.viewpointlearning.com.
The high dropout rate at charter schools is significant because there are sometimes suspicions that lower achieving students are “dropped out” of charter schools, inflating the success rate of the school.
The charter school dropout rate should be closely watched, though for perhaps different reasons than the traditional school dropout rate.
District-run public high schools transfer their low-achieving students to “opportunity” schools or other alternative programs. These typically have very low test scores and very high drop-out rates, which aren’t counted against the comprehensive high school. There’s a bill in the Legislature (Steinberg) to fix this. I noticed San Jose high school starting “opportunity” schools for high-risk students when the state accountability system started, pre-NCLB.
I agree with Joanne Jacobs. The dropout rate has to be carefully examined so we know who is “dropping out” to where, and why.
This is another reason why the student tracking database is so important.